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Dante
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

This is interesting. So I understand, are you assigning the value of the stake so that payout would be roughly equal across all three bets?


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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

Results - Betting Round 6

Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
Man City 2-2 Tottenham
West Brom 2-0 Sunderland

Current Balance: €290

German Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach
Bet: Bayer Leverkusen To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.36 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 79.6% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 108.3%
Stake: €102

Spanish La Liga
Espanyol v Sevilla
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.1% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: €81

Spanish La Liga
Betis v Barcelona
Bet: Barcelona To Win @ 1.3 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 82.1% | Expected Value 106.8%
Stake: €107
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

This is interesting. So I understand, are you assigning the value of the stake so that payout would be roughly equal across all three bets?
Exactly.
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

Results - Betting Round 7

Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach
Espanyol 3-1 Sevilla
Betis 1-1 Barcelona

Current Balance: €138

English Premier League
Middlesbrough v West Brom
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 BetFred
Expected Strike Rate: 71.1% | Expected Value 106.7%
Stake: €43

English Premier League
Liverpool v Chelsea
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.83 William Hill
Expected Strike Rate: 58.7% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €36

English Premier League
Man Utd v Hull
Bet: Man Utd To Win @ 1.2 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 90.1% | Expected Value 108.1%
Stake: €52
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

Results - Betting Round 8

Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea
Man Utd 0-0 Hull

Current Balance: €137

English Premier League
Stoke v Crystal Palace
Bet: Stoke Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.3 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.5% | Expected Value 107.3%
Stake: €53

English Premier League
Liverpool v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Coral
Expected Strike Rate: 62.7% | Expected Value 108.6%
Stake: €39

German Bundesliga
Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
Bet: Hoffenheim Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.53 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 73.2% | Expected Value 112.1%
Stake: €45
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Dante
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

It's all gone wrong at the minute.
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SUBXERO
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

I keep on asking myself how on earth is Ray still not in the topic explaining how deflated statistics are in this game.
UNITED > ENGLAND

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

Results - Betting Round 9

Stoke 1-0 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
Wolfsburg 2-1 Hoffenheim

Current Balance: €69

Champions League
Benfica v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 63% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: €22

Champions League
Real Madrid v Napoli
Bet: Napoli +2 Handicap @ 1.53 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.5% | Expected Value 106.4%
Stake: €25

Champions League
PSG v Barcelona
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 65% | Expected Value 108.7%
Stake: €22
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

RedSte
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

so if the Napoli bet dosent come off tomorrow that's game over, no?
My old man said be a City fan...

Nothing significant and lasting will ever come of FFP! - RedSte (2012)

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

I won't be continuing the log in its current format. The stake percentage is simply too high.

To quote my opening post:

"This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example."

I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake.

Regarding my pledge to donate €500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully.
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Dante
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

4 months ago

A shame, but I guess this was always high risk.

Let us know when you have a new strategy, will be interested in seeing where you take it from here.
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