I don't bet personally but I am quite curious how do you come up with your strategy?
I've never tried creating a model for betting but it would be quite interesting to try in an afternoon if I am free using 10,000 simulations to generate predicted results, must be a good formula that could be used on historical results.
If you're looking for a mathematical formula that anyone can apply to football betting that just doesn't exist. Each game is a unique event. If such an approach actually does exist nobody will ever share it.
I have seen some punters use a database to see how a team/league will perform over the full game based on the half time score but I'm not a fan of this approach and haven't seen the long term results of this in-play strategy.
There is no substitute for watching games and understanding each teams strengths and weaknesses, then looking at injuries and suspensions, then motivation, travel, midweek European fixtures, size of pitch can be a factor, home and away form, strategy and results against similar opponents, ect ect. You can't run a simulation on those conditions to test any formula, it requires intuition gained over time by doing it week after week.
If you use a purely mathematical approach you are betting off focusing on a sport like baseball.