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€200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Fri Nov 25, 2016 2:00 pm

I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June.

Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.

Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.

I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.

I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill

*This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example.

*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.


€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Fri Nov 25, 2016 2:47 pm

At least this means we are an active enough forum for spammers to want to get involved
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:10 pm

Hopefully this won't be seen as spam and will be of interest to a few people.
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Sat Nov 26, 2016 1:21 am

Betting Round 1:

English Premier League
Hull v West Brom
Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1%
Stake: €67

English Premier League
Swansea v Crystal Palace
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2%
Stake: €56

English Premier League
Man Utd v West Ham
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7%
Stake: €77
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Sun Nov 27, 2016 7:06 pm

Results - Betting Round 1

Hull 1-1 West Brom
Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace
Man Utd 1-1 West Ham

Current Balance: €282
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Thu Dec 01, 2016 8:28 pm

Betting Round 2:

English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7%
Stake: €82

Spanish Primera Division
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1%
Stake: €102

Champions League
Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4%
Stake: €98
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:39 pm

Results - Betting Round 2

Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton
Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund

Current Balance: €294
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Mon Dec 12, 2016 3:59 pm

Betting Round 3:

English Premier League
Everton v Arsenal
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7%
Stake: €81

English Premier League
West Ham v Burnley
Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3%
Stake: €108

English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Man Utd
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1%
Stake: €105
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Wed Dec 14, 2016 10:54 pm

Results - Betting Round 3

Everton 2-1 Arsenal
West Ham 1-0 Burnley
Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

Current Balance: €406
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:24 am

No mate this is spam

High quality spam but spam nonetheless
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:11 am

I don't mind it so much, 10k is quite a big target.

But Division, I think this would be more accepted by other members and they would get more involved if you posted your thoughts about united/other teams in other sections of the forum.

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Thu Dec 15, 2016 3:26 pm

My intention is primarily to raise awareness and funds for Concern Worldwide. People reading the thread might benefit from that. As a football fan when I have something of value to add to another thread I will but I tend not to post a lot aimlessly.

I'm not sure what the value of saying that Pogba was offside for his goal last night and Mata was not offside for the disallowed goal. Shocking refereeing, ect. I'm sure it has been said already.

Having people continue to accuse me of being a spammer makes it less likely that i will continue to share the tips which take quite a while to research on top of the years it took to learn how to price up markets which some readers of the thread might be benefiting from or will when they see a few more winning bets and gain a bit of confidence in my picks.
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:11 pm

Like I said I personally don't mind it, I actually find it quite interesting esp as you get to the higher amounts.

But I do get where others might be coming from, if you do feel like you have something to add to other topics (even create your own topics of discussion if you have any debates you would like to start) then that would be nice.

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Thu Dec 15, 2016 6:42 pm

I will participate in other threads from time to time and I do read them regularly but I'm not the type to say something on the forum just for the sake of saying something.

I try to add something to any conversation I join and am willing to chat about betting with any of the forum members that genuinely want to improve their betting as there is a big overlap between the members of a premier league fan forum and people that like to have a bet at the weekend so I can contribute to the forum in that way also.
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:26 pm

I don't bet personally but I am quite curious how do you come up with your strategy?

I've never tried creating a model for betting but it would be quite interesting to try in an afternoon if I am free using 10,000 simulations to generate predicted results, must be a good formula that could be used on historical results.

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:06 pm

Im keen to see how this pans out...I could be interested in "investing" in similar bets at a lower level

Keep up the good work Div :)
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Fri Dec 16, 2016 2:34 am

Im keen to see how this pans out...I could be interested in "investing" in similar bets at a lower level

Keep up the good work Div :)
Me too. 200 to 10k is huge.
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:25 am

I don't bet personally but I am quite curious how do you come up with your strategy?

I've never tried creating a model for betting but it would be quite interesting to try in an afternoon if I am free using 10,000 simulations to generate predicted results, must be a good formula that could be used on historical results.
If you're looking for a mathematical formula that anyone can apply to football betting that just doesn't exist. Each game is a unique event. If such an approach actually does exist nobody will ever share it.

I have seen some punters use a database to see how a team/league will perform over the full game based on the half time score but I'm not a fan of this approach and haven't seen the long term results of this in-play strategy.

There is no substitute for watching games and understanding each teams strengths and weaknesses, then looking at injuries and suspensions, then motivation, travel, midweek European fixtures, size of pitch can be a factor, home and away form, strategy and results against similar opponents, ect ect. You can't run a simulation on those conditions to test any formula, it requires intuition gained over time by doing it week after week.

If you use a purely mathematical approach you are betting off focusing on a sport like baseball.
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Fri Dec 16, 2016 12:08 pm

How do you come up with the percentage of expected strike rate?

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:01 am

Basically I assign percentages to each team scoring 0 goals, 1 goal, 2 goals, ect.

I compile all the scores and corresponding percentages from this which allows me to price up a range of markets and find out the strike rate of an event occurring.

I have seen all type of stats only based betting, ELO ratings being the most popular. None have been successful in the long run so it takes experience to be able to determine how much to adjust probabilities based on how the game will play as a result of the factors I mentioned in my second last post among others.
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:21 am

Betting Round 4:

English Premier League
Tottenham v Burnley
Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7%
Stake: €99

English Premier League
West Ham v Hull
Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €152

English Premier League
Everton v Liverpool
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3%
Stake: €155
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:38 am

Okay thanks for your reply, I do agree that a mathematical model wouldnt work fully but is the mathematical geek in me looking at that option.

Interesting picks for this week, I think these are more risky than previous week as I think West Ham will win.

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Sat Dec 17, 2016 2:04 pm

I tried that approach myself. I have a finance background so tried a few stats based approaches. There is no substitute for watching the full games (not match of the day highlights) and knowing how a future game will likely play out by analyzing a lot of games previously. Since sharing tips I have noticed that people seem to think that I can explain to them how to make a profit in a forum post or provide them with an excel file that will magically calculate odds from some stats in the league table. Truth is it takes a lot of time, week after week. The analysis you did on a team 2 weeks ago is not much use for a game this weekend as its a unique event.
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:28 pm

Results - Betting Round 4

Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
West Ham 1-0 Hull
Everton 0-1 Liverpool

Current Balance: €190

English Premier League
Everton v Man City
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4%
Stake: €58

English Premier League
Swansea v Arsenal
Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8%
Stake: €64

Spanish La Liga
Sevilla v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2%
Stake: €68
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:06 pm

Results - Betting Round 5

Swansea 0-4 Arsenal
Sevilla 2-1 Real Madrid
Everton 4-0 Man City

Current Balance: €197

German Bundesliga
Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.9% | Expected Value 109.7%
Stake: €62

English Premier League
Man City v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.3% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €58

English Premier League
West Brom v Sunderland
Bet: West Brom To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 88.4% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 110.6%
Stake: €77
€200 to €10,000 Bet Log: https://www.unitedlounge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20034

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