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Andersongo
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Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Thu Jun 30, 2016 5:25 pm

The next financial mega-tremor is coming courtesy of the bank emblematic of the most financially prudent state in the EU: Deutschebank. Here is how I see the apocalypse to happen:

(1) Political instability in Spain and Portugal leads to the failure of some regional banks.
(2) New bail-in rules forces a hefty haircut on investors and the loss of life savings for ordinary citizens.
(3) Defiance by investors lead to impossiblity of refinancing struggling banks which also inevitably fail.
(4) Bank runs put pressure on Santander, one of the two banks to have repeatedly failed generous stress tests by the FED.
(5) Political crisis erupts in Brussels as Schaueble blocks any bail-out using EU -hence German- funds. Long-awaited showdown between Schaueble and Draghi happens, with the former showing that political power trumps institutional power.
(6) Santander fails.
(7) Taking into account that no aid is coming from the ECB, Italian banks default one after the other. Renzi and his clique thrown out of government.
(8) Continuous defiance of investors towards EU Finacial sector leads to intense shorting by Soros and other sharks of the other bank to have continuously failed FED stress tests, putting it on the brink.
(9) Merkel government is thrown out. EU tries to change bail-in rules to enable the saving of said distressed bank but fails in the face of popular resentment and euroskepticism from the periphery of the EU.
(10) The last domino finally fails. Deutchebank crashes down under the weight of its 67 trillion dollar exposure to the derivative market. The black swan has finally arrived: a bank too big to save.
(11) All bets are off.

Have a nice day and don't forget: the future is more Europe!


"A Moyes! My kingdom for a Moyes!" - Sir Alex Ferguson in the famous tragedy " Manchester United's great EPL campaign of 13/14" by respected journo G. Neville.

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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Mon Jul 04, 2016 2:05 pm

And so it begins:

Renzi ready to defy Brussels and bail out Italy’s troubled banks

Rachel Sanderson in Rome and Alex Barker in Brussels

Italy is prepared to defy the EU and unilaterally pump billions of euros into its troubled banking system if it comes under severe systemic distress, a last-resort move that would smash through the bloc’s nascent regime for handling ailing banks.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e3b53640-4108 ... 73ae1.html


"A Moyes! My kingdom for a Moyes!" - Sir Alex Ferguson in the famous tragedy " Manchester United's great EPL campaign of 13/14" by respected journo G. Neville.

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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:16 am

Black swans are starting to appear.

Hedge funds pull business from Deutsche Bank

Pressure on German bank weighs on its shares and the wider US market....

https://www.ft.com/content/42ec5f88-862 ... 7d9515ad15

Next stop: Political squabbling over a government bail-out of Germany's Bank with the potential of ripping the EU to shreds.


"A Moyes! My kingdom for a Moyes!" - Sir Alex Ferguson in the famous tragedy " Manchester United's great EPL campaign of 13/14" by respected journo G. Neville.

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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:57 pm

You should be putting bets on all of this. Pretty spot on so far!



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marcus leong
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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Oct 15, 2016 11:37 am

Andersongo wrote:And so it begins:

Renzi ready to defy Brussels and bail out Italy’s troubled banks

Rachel Sanderson in Rome and Alex Barker in Brussels

Italy is prepared to defy the EU and unilaterally pump billions of euros into its troubled banking system if it comes under severe systemic distress, a last-resort move that would smash through the bloc’s nascent regime for handling ailing banks.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e3b53640-4108 ... 73ae1.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-it ... 2016-07-21


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:33 pm

Interesting stuff.


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Carrick 5 Gerrard 0
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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Oct 15, 2016 9:01 pm

A colleague of mine has been convinced for the last year that DB is a ticking time bomb and it seems like what he has been saying is actually coming true.
The other thing is that there are some banks that have gotten significantly stronger since the crisis but there are others that have just about passed the PRA, EBA or CCAR stress tests and the regulators just need to keep an eye on those.
All that being said, I think DB will really struggle but it will survive one way or another, I don't think the market risk world could afford that bank to fail.



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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Oct 15, 2016 9:24 pm

I really do hope they get a grip and finally stop acting like wannabe-invincible dickheads. Merkel made it clear once and for all that they won't get any help from the state for internal managerial blunders.


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Fri Nov 04, 2016 6:54 pm

Recently run across a "theory" and I remembered this topic.

Some conspiracy theorists claim that Merkel was blackmailed in to accepting the "refugees" in exchange for Arab money (Qatar I think) to save the broke German financial institutions.


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marcus leong
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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Nov 05, 2016 9:23 am

Conspiracy theorist are cuckoo. :yawn:


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:47 pm

What would be the point in that? Why couldn't Qatar just host the refugees, surely it would have been cheaper?

https://youtu.be/5Qp06myXD4g


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Nov 05, 2016 2:28 pm

marcus leong wrote:Conspiracy theorist are cuckoo. :yawn:
except they have been proven right over and over again this year


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:45 pm

There is a poster on here who was around the borders where 'refugees' were crossing who said many of them are grown men not kids, destroying their passports etc.

Where are all the children entering Britain? Why are the pictures of fighting age men? No women?


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Nov 05, 2016 10:03 pm

Martin wrote:Where are all the children entering Britain? Why are the pictures of fighting age men? No women?
Because that's not the agenda that the papers want to push.

If you want a female child though, have Nujeen Mustafa


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Nov 05, 2016 10:17 pm

That's Germany?

You would think any agenda could be quickly debunked by the likes of the BBC if the refugees entering the UK included women and children. All they would have to do is publish the pictures. The only ones I've seen are of men who look 20-35ish.


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:11 pm



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marcus leong
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Re: RE: Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:23 am

Relly wrote:
marcus leong wrote:Conspiracy theorist are cuckoo. :yawn:
except they have been proven right over and over again this year
When you go all over to look for information that fit your perception, everyone can be right.


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Re: RE: Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:49 pm

marcus leong wrote:
Relly wrote:
marcus leong wrote:Conspiracy theorist are cuckoo. :yawn:
except they have been proven right over and over again this year
When you go all over to look for information that fit your perception, everyone can be right.
one spot is good enough, wikileaks


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:38 pm

You'll get laughed at and called a nut for posting that video Relly (probably) but there is truth to it imo.

Did you see the Gary Lineker thing? Shit like that annoys me and I reckon if people weren't smeared as racists and made to feel as if any concerns regarding immigration were unacceptable or that they are heartless many birth canals for questioning it then we probably wouldn't have ended up with Brexit or the rise of UKIP. I'd still vote Green, but the Refugees Welcome stuff really puts me off them.


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marcus leong
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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sun Nov 06, 2016 10:10 pm

Martin wrote:You'll get laughed at and called a nut for posting that video Relly (probably) but there is truth to it imo.

Did you see the Gary Lineker thing? Shit like that annoys me and I reckon if people weren't smeared as racists and made to feel as if any concerns regarding immigration were unacceptable or that they are heartless many birth canals for questioning it then we probably wouldn't have ended up with Brexit or the rise of UKIP. I'd still vote Green, but the Refugees Welcome stuff really puts me off them.

Of course there are. That is how anyone use a part of information and tweak it to serve their agenda.


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:29 pm

Martin wrote:You'll get laughed at and called a nut for posting that video Relly (probably) but there is truth to it imo.

Did you see the Gary Lineker thing? Shit like that annoys me and I reckon if people weren't smeared as racists and made to feel as if any concerns regarding immigration were unacceptable or that they are heartless many birth canals for questioning it then we probably wouldn't have ended up with Brexit or the rise of UKIP. I'd still vote Green, but the Refugees Welcome stuff really puts me off them.
What Lineker thing?

I am not against immigration, but it should be done in a logical sense. Immigration is a tool to be used to improve a country. You should be bringing in people with similar values that will meld with the current population. You should be bringing people with skills that are lacking in our own county. Shipping in thousands of people who's defining aspect of their life (Islam) is fundamentally against much of what we stand for, who have not been properly vetted just to fulfill campaign promises is wrong and dangerous.

I have no shame in posting that video, it's what's happening, and if you don't realize that it's because you have been socially engineered to feel guilty about protecting your country and your family from known threats. I know your average muslim is probably a good person who just wants to look after their family like you and me, but there is a large enough number of them who hate everything we stand for and sole purpose in life is destroying the west. The west is at war with radical islam, and when you are at war you don't take in the enemy. The most logical example is what Trump's son said about the bowl of skittles, would you take a handfull if you knew one was poisoned? 99% of the refugees could be legit (which I doubt since most of them appear to be military age men) but if just 1 or 2 is a terrorist you will pay the price and is it really worth the risk when there is little to no benefit from taking them in the first place?


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Re: Ticking time bomb at the heart of the EU.

Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:04 am

Relly wrote:What Lineker thing?
Basically he posted some pathetic tweets that were nothing more than uninformed virtue signals and then started calling everyone who challenged him 'racist'. He then said the same about Tommy Robinson and failed to provide an argument other guilty by association. It is frustrating how many people think the way he does.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/peopl ... 69156.html

Click the time/date of the tweet and open this in a new tab and check the comments on it. Godfrey :) -
I am not against immigration, but it should be done in a logical sense. Immigration is a tool to be used to improve a country. You should be bringing in people with similar values that will meld with the current population. You should be bringing people with skills that are lacking in our own county. Shipping in thousands of people who's defining aspect of their life (Islam) is fundamentally against much of what we stand for, who have not been properly vetted just to fulfill campaign promises is wrong and dangerous.
Agreed.
I have no shame in posting that video, it's what's happening, and if you don't realize that it's because you have been socially engineered to feel guilty about protecting your country and your family from known threats. I know your average muslim is probably a good person who just wants to look after their family like you and me, but there is a large enough number of them who hate everything we stand for and sole purpose in life is destroying the west. The west is at war with radical islam, and when you are at war you don't take in the enemy. The most logical example is what Trump's son said about the bowl of skittles, would you take a handfull if you knew one was poisoned? 99% of the refugees could be legit (which I doubt since most of them appear to be military age men) but if just 1 or 2 is a terrorist you will pay the price and is it really worth the risk when there is little to no benefit from taking them in the first place?
As long as they are vetted and thoroughly checked then I don't have an issue with genuine refugees being granted asylum in Britain. Look at Malala Yousafzai for example. But when people voice concerns about our immigration policies, I don't think they are talking about the likes of Malala. I don't think many people have a problem with immigration if the people being granted asylum in Britain were similar examples to Malala.

The issue for me is as you say, the difference in culture and religious ideals of the people who were in Calais and the countries they come from in general and the demographics of the immigrants.

I'm pretty sure a decent amount are economic migrants. Besides, they're not fleeing war, they're fleeing France.


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